According to preliminary data, the state budget deficit for the first eleven months of the year amounted to EUR 396 million, less than a third of the deficit recorded in the same period last year. According to the latest available estimate by the Ministry of Finance, the end-of-year deficit is expected to amount to EUR 1,407 million, implying a deficit of as much as EUR 1 billion in December.
The balance excluding the direct impact of intervention measures showed a surplus of EUR 100 million, similar to the same period last year (EUR 80 million). Total expenditure on intervention measures amounted to EUR 496 million, just four tenths of the amount spent in the same period last year. According to the latest available estimate by the Ministry of Finance, EUR 713 million is earmarked for intervention measures this year (excluding the Reconstruction Fund).
The growth in “core” expenditure (excluding intervention measures) was 9.3%, an increase compared to the same period last year (7.2%). The main reasons for this year’s growth were contributions to budgetary funds, in particular to the newly established Reconstruction Fund, and the transfer to the Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia (ZPIZ) due to the high indexation of pensions.
Like the Fiscal Council, the European Commission has assessed that the Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan 2025–2028 formally meets the requirements of European legislation. However, the European Commission also warns of risks that actual net expenditure growth will be higher than required or allowed as a result of changes to the public sector pay system, the introduction of long-term care, the reform of the healthcare system and deviations from the planned implementation of major investment projects. The possibility that net expenditure growth could be significantly higher than required is also indicated by the adopted amendment to the state budget for 2025, which projects a growth in non-intervention spending of 12.3%. According to the Plan, the growth in net general government expenditure in 2025 could be no higher than 5.6%.