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Published: 08/01/2024

An ex post evaluation of forecasts of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates in the reference period 2020 – 2023

The deviations of the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for the 2020–2023 period were larger than the long-term average. This is partly understandable, as this period was marked by large unexpected shocks. Although the 2020 intervention legislation provided for 2020 and 2021 to be excluded from the ex post analysis of forecast deviations, it is important that data from crisis periods are also included in the analyses, as they can have important implications for planning and public finances in the longer term. The ex post evaluation of forecasts of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates excluding the impact of intervention measures also shows that deviations increased markedly on average over the last four years. This suggests the continuation of a lack of realism in fiscal planning. The increased deviations are particularly pronounced in the area of expenditure forecasts, which poses a risk of inefficient spending. At the same time, this approach to fiscal planning poses potential difficulties for target-setting in the context of reformed economic governance at the EU level, which will be centred on a multi-annual plan that cannot be revised. Its starting point should also be based on realistic forecasts of fiscal aggregates.

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