In the first nine months of 2023, the state budget recorded a deficit of EUR 764 million, which amounted to EUR 57 million excluding the impact of various intervention measures.
State budget trends in the first nine months were worse than in the same period last year. The total deficit was higher (by EUR 445 million), and the “core” balance (excluding intervention measures) decreased by EUR 597 million, following a surplus in the same period last year. After last year’s high growth, revenue is virtually stagnant, while growth in “core” consumption continues. Due to structural changes, this year’s growth is somewhat slower than in the same period last year, but it remains relatively high, largely stemming from stronger growth in expenditure for labour costs due to the agreement reached last autumn.
The nine-month outturn confirms the Fiscal Council’s assessment as regards continued unrealistic budget planning, which can form an inappropriate basis for the high level of expenditure set for the following years and offer opportunities for the irrational use of public funds. According to the assessment of the state budget outturn for 2023, which the Fiscal Council received with the draft budget documents for the next two years, the deficit in the last three months of this year is expected to amount to as much as EUR 2.4 billion. That would mean EUR 1 billion more than last year’s total and approximately three times as much as in the last three months of 2020, i.e. during the pandemic.
On 29 September, the Fiscal Council received from the Ministry of Finance proposals for an Amendment to the Decrees on the Drafting of Budgets for the General Government Sector for 2022-2024 and 2024-2026, as well as a proposal for amendments to the State Budget for 2024 and the draft State Budget for 2025. This was the start of the 15-day deadline set by the Public Finance Act for the preparation of the assessment of the Framework, and the Fiscal Council has until 20 October to prepare its assessment of the draft national budgets. At the same time, the Fiscal Council has not yet received the accompanying projections for the general government sector under the ESA methodology for 2025. Without these, it will not be possible to prepare an assessment of compliance with the fiscal rules in the draft budget for 2025, consistent with the Fiscal Rule Act, for that year.